In peer support for recovery, 'hope' is routinely invoked, but hope that depends on a guaranteed outcome is not available since recovery has no such guarantee. This analysis distinguishes between two formulations of hope: hope-as-orientation and hope-as-prediction. Hope-as-orientation names a directional possibility rather than a guaranteed outcome and is available honestly even when certainty is not. It does structural work in peer support by distinguishing conditions where movement toward a different state is possible versus where the current condition is the only available one. In contrast, hope collapses into social gesture when offered as reassurance without grounding, used to close down acknowledgment of genuine uncertainty, or attached to specific outcomes that are not available. The analysis does not determine whether hope-as-orientation or hope-as-reassurance is more effective at supporting recovery; this remains an empirical question.